Think Tanks and Venezuela

Think Tanks are an excellent source for analysis on difficult issues and their recommendations are often considered by policy makers when tackling domestic and international issues. One international issue that has gained a great deal of interest and discussion is the crisis in Venezuela. The crisis erupted in 2018, after the re-election of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. There were claims that the elections were not free and fair and as such, in line with Venezuela’s constitution the president of the National Assembly would take over as acting president. The current head of the National Assembly is 35-year-old Juan Guaidó. Despite Guaidó’s claim that he is now acting president, Maduro has refused to step down from power, leading to weeks of protests. Making conditions even worse in the country, Venezuela is currently facing an economic and humanitarian crisis, recent figures show 4.5 million people have left Venezuela to date.

One place to turn to for how to tackle the multiple crises in Venezuela is think tanks. It seems thought the crisis in Venezuela may be to be too large for even the think tanks to tackle. Think tanks, such as the Council on Foreign Relations, The Center for Strategic and International Institute, and The Brookings Institute have all weighed in on what could be done. They were able to provide excellent analysis of the crisis and the problem areas that need to be addressed; however, the potential solutions varied widely from one institution to the next. Instead of a plan of action in regards to Venezuela, most think tanks instead offer broader objectives or areas of focus that should be considered when trying to think of a way forward for Venezuela.

There is a recurring message from the different think tanks in regards to mobilizing and unifying key groups in Venezuela and having them work together to create a comprehensive plan for the country. Additionally, what has also been brought up by more than one think tank is the challenge of getting the United Nations involved as a mediator in the crisis. Authorization for a United Nations mediation force would need to come from the Security Council, but would likely not be authorized due to the politics of the Security Council. The U.N. Security Council is comprised of five permanent members that have veto power and among them, Russia and China back Maduro as president and the United States backs Guaidó as the President of Venezuela. This means it would be immensely challenging to create a mediation team or plan that would not appear to favor Maduro or Guaidó. The bigger question becomes if the think tanks are not sure of how to get Venezuela out of its crisis, who will be? Though it could also be beneficial to whatever team comes together to attempt to mediate the crisis, that the think tanks have proposed so many different potential areas of focus that they can pick and choose from.