Are we about to see “wag the dog” politics from Trump?

Many have recently floated the idea that Trump might try to distract the public from the introduction of the articles of impeachment and other domestic issues by starting a diversionary war in Iran, North Korea, or even possibly Venezuela. Creating a foreign policy crisis to shift the public’s attention is not a new concept; many accused President Clinton of doing the same thing by bombing suspected terrorist facilities in Sudan and Afghanistan amidst his sex scandal. In the past, the president has suggested starting a war could be an electoral strategy. The threat of impeachment only intensifies the fear that he will employ such a strategy. However, there is also evidence that would contradict this notion. While Trump’s rhetoric is consistently very aggressive, namely with his refusal to rule out using nuclear weapons against the Islamic State and threatening North Korea with “fire and fury,” he also consistently says he opposes conflict. He campaigned on ending the United States’ “endless wars,” and continues to use this point regarding Syria and Afghanistan, as seen in his withdrawal of troops from Syria. There is also the possibility that Trump will use a form of diversionary peace with North Korea in pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize, which he has stated numerous times he is interested in acquiring. However, the most likely scenario of Trump foreign policy during this time is that it will become more sporadic. With the impeachment inquiry underway, Trump is seeking to consolidate domestic political support. However, there are not necessarily many “wins” for Trump to take advantage of at the moment. North Korea is unwilling to discuss denuclearization unless the United States first abandons what its negotiators call the Americans’ “hostile policy.” Trump’s abandonment of the United States’ Kurdish partners was already unsuccessful since he has since reversed this policy. The sanctions on Iran and China don’t seem to be accomplishing the administration’s goals. The death of al-Baghdadi could be considered a political win for the administration, but this is also contingent on whether or not ISIS activities increase in the near future. In terms of political “wins,” however, in many cases it seems that Trump’s supporters respond just as much to his bold claims, not necessarily just actions. It is possible Trump would only need to continue his line of controversial rhetoric to create a diversion from impeachment.