In Review:

            The last 6 months have been a whirlwind of events relevant to U.S. national security and interest. Everything from protest toppling governments to elections deciding the course of a nation to the impeachment process. Each event has a major impact on their county’s and true consequences will take years to unfold. The last 6 months have been interesting and will shape the next few years.

            Across the world, it has been a season of protest. From Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America major protest have occurred. Hong Kong is best known. In response to an extradition bill allowing extradition to mainland China protest erupted and continued for much of the summer and fall with new demands emerging. When local elections were held prodemocracy, candidates won seats easily. Despite this victory, the situation has not changed China will have full control over Hong Kong in 2047. Will the protest regain steam and how will Beijing respond in the coming year?

              Protest elsewhere have had other major impacts. In Iraq protest against lack of economic opportunities have rocked the country. Hundreds have been killed and the country was shaken. Will the Iraq government survive? Will the firebrand Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr a leader of the protest movement rise to power?

            Elsewhere in the Middle East the U.S. tracked and killed al-Baghdadi leader of the Islamic State. An operational success for the U.S. but it is doubtful if it will change the course of the war. The Islamic State is likely to continue to fracture into cells. How the U.S. withdrawal and Turkish invasion shape the region? Certainty instability will be constant and if U.S. position changes after the 2020 election what will happen then?  

            Protest rocked Latin America as well. The Chilean economy has taken a major hit. Consider the most stable and well performing in the region growth has been reduced to a standstill. Will a constitutional referendum in the spring return stability to the country? In Bolivia Evo Morales was ousted from power after protests about the legitimacy of the election. It depends on who you ask if it was the protest or the military that ousted Morales. Will Bolivia stabilize, or will Morales return and bring chaos to the country. Will the change of government help U.S. policy in Venezuela?     

            The big one for Americans is for only the third time a president has been impeached by the House of Representatives. The Trump impeachment raises hundreds of questions about everything from executive power to who defines the national interest. The only thoughts I can constructively offer is that there is no good result of this process. This will be a partisan mudslinging process. We will emerge from impeachment more divided with an inconclusive result. It’s all bad and we are in for a brutal presidential campaign in 2020. I’m not excited one bit.

            It has been a busy semester. I do not think the world has radically changed from the beginning to the end but everything that has occurred shows the underlying trends. Questions about the viability of democracy and free market capitalism remain a key driver of political activity.