The Impact of Impeachment

The House is expected to vote in favor of impeaching President Trump tonight on the charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The Democrats are staking a lot on the impeachment proceedings. They currently control many districts that President Trump won in 2016. If the impeachment process backfires, these candidates could be put at risk of losing their seats in the 2020 election and Trump could be elected for a second term. While the impeachment trial likely won’t result in a conviction and removal from office, the trial provides an opportunity for the Democrats to make their case against President Trump. If they bring a strong case backed by hard evidence to the trial, they could win over key voters and unseat President Trump in the 2020 election.

While there might be merit behind the impeachment and its in the realm of possibility that President Trump is guilty of the charges brought against him. Its unlikely that any significant legal repercussions will come out of a trial right now. The Republicans have a senate majority and appear to be united against the impeachment. While the trial might bring Trump’s actions to light, its seems unlikely that he’s done enough to lose enough of the Senate’s support to be found guilty. However, the President will still have to defend his actions well enough to keep the support of those considering voting for him. In regards to the impact on the election, the President does hold an advantage in that support for impeachment and removal from office is down from October while his approval rating is up.

Whether President Trump is removed from office by a conviction, is voted out of office, or leaves office following the 2024 election, a change in the Oval Office would surely lead to a series of policy changes both at home and aboard. We would likely see a return to pre-Trump foreign policy. In addition, President Trump’s successor would be tasked with mending relationships with our allies that were damaged during the Trump administration. The new President of the United States would also have to help mend relationships between Democrats and Republicans at home.