Japan's Security Dilemma

Photo: A Chinese coast guard vessel near disputed islands in the East China Sea (August 2016). 

As Abe's successor Yoshihide Suga finds his footing during his first weeks in office, Japan faces growing tensions with China in the East China Sea. Both Japan and China have historical claims to the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and maintain vessels nearby. China has increased its coast guard presence in the islands' vicinity, which Japan views as an escalation regardless of China's stated reasoning. Additional 'aggressive behavior' in the East China Sea has contributed to public calls to cancel Xi Jinping's upcoming state visit. In addition to these regionally-focused tensions, Japan faces concerns over Chinese and North Korean efforts to expand missile stockpiles. Since North Korea successfully fired two nuclear-capable ballistic missiles over Japan in 2017, Kim Jong Un has made progress on many smaller solid-fuel missiles designed with US-made interceptors in mind. As Xi Jinping demonstrated in a military parade in 2019, China is also developing weapon systems to counteract certain capabilities such as its DF-17 missile equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle.  

Some in Japan (including its former prime minister Abe) argue that Japan must build up its offensive capability in order to prepare for and combat these threats, while others emphasize the importance of missile defense. In 2017, the Japanese Defense Ministry allocated funds for an air-to-surface Joint Strike Missile, and the 2020 budget included allocations for F-35-mounted cruise missiles. However, as the US pressures Japan to play a bigger role in the region--where Japan faces increasing threats to its security from neighbors China and North Korea--the issue of a security dilemma arises. Prime Minister Suga must work to balance threat response with the cost (both economic and political) of new capabilities, while ensuring that Japan's reactions do not feed into the cycle of escalation and make it worse.