The Possibility of U.S. Diplomatic Withdrawal from Iraq

     On September 28, 2020 U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened to close the U.S. embassy in Baghdad over claims of increased rocket and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks by Iran-backed groups and armed rogue groups against the the U.S. embassy, areas with large American and coalition forces, and the Baghdad Airport. The U.S. posits that in order to stay, the already fragile Iraqi government must take tougher measures against the militias. Statements from the Iraqi foreign minister and U.S. officials indicate the evacuation of the embassy and extraction of the diplomatic representatives are intended to provide more military options to the U.S. to combat Iran-back forces thus paving the way for a proxy war between the U.S. and Iran in Iraq.

    There is allied support from the UK, Canada, and Saudi Arabia for requiring better protection of the embassy and personnel. Between October 2019 and July 2020 about 40 rocket attacks have targeted the US embassy or bases housing American troops; In September 2020, alone, Iran-back Shiite militias launched more than two dozen attacks in or around Baghdad. There are echoes that these events are parallel to the events in 2012 in Benghazi which led to the death of an American Ambassador and 3 others. While it has been quickly dismissed by the Iraqi Foreign Minister, there may be credence to this argument. It is worth analyzing whether this is a scenario where we are learning from the past or if Mike Pompeo is actually opening the door to more “stick” waving by removing the carrots. 

    Whether combatting and taking a hard stance against Iran or protecting the diplomatic core are the prerogative for these unprecedented events, one key idea springs to my mind: What about U.S. relations with the Iraqi people? There are alternatives to opening Iraq to the havoc an intensified proxy war with Iran. There are alternatives to reducing diplomatic relations with Baghdad. The U.S. needs to acquire the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people. Democracy is installed, security forces trained. Undoubtedly, there are still problems for Iraq, but the U.S. could do more, learn more, and focus more on the people on the ground. Could this be an opportunity to use Iran's playbook and throw it back at them. Investing in Iraq provides an opportunity to bolster pro-American sentiment is something I haven’t seen discussed often. It is hard work and can backfire as we saw after the success of the Cold War and current crackdowns by Putin and Hungary’s Orban on American institutions and NGOs. It doesn’t guarantee support by American voters. It doesn’t guarantee a solution to Iran-back militias shooting rockets. However, Iran-back militias are and have been killing Iraqi civilians. Iraqis want jobs and to protect their families. Why not try something new? Given past initiatives and unjustified invasion in 2003, the U.S. has wagered the lives of Americans for years in order to preserve American influence in Iraq, why let Iran spoil it?