Israel and the two Arab Gulf states of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have formally established diplomatic relations with the signing of the "Abraham Accords". Bahrain and the U.A.E. are the third and fourth states to have opened diplomatic relations with Israel following Egypt and Jordan. The "losers" in this deal are clearly the state of Iran and the Palestinians. This official establishment of relations is significant in terms of the precedent it sets for Israeli-Gulf cooperation in the future. However, the written agreement only really reenforces the cooperation which has already been at work for the better part of a decade. The way in which the deal has been covered by the media and the way it is interpreted by the everyday people who live in Middle East I believe is significant to future agreements like this one.
The United States led coalition in the Middle East has failed in its objective to completely eradicate islamic extremist's ability to spread their ideology and wage terrorist attacks. This over two decade long campaign however has severely limited the resources of these groups. The financial support structure has been fractured and manpower depleted rendering limiting the scope of attacks mainly to Iraq and Syria. The United States is in the process of withdrawing ground troops from the region and has committed to further limiting its engagements in the future. This creates a viable security threat. With the decrease in U.S. influence, terror threats may again grow. We have seen this play out with the strengthening of ISIS and we are reminded that influence of radical jihadists is not limited to the Middle East. In the information age we now find ourselves in it has become easier than ever before to export ideology. This may help those already on the path to radicalization find likeminded individuals, causing numbers to grow. Even with limited financial resources the desire to strike at Western ideals and symbols of power has never been stronger due to the drawn out nature of the conflict. Because of these two factors we can expect to see terror become more regionalized. The ongoing westernization in the U.A.E and Bahrain may be seen as the perfect target to these groups. Their relatively close geographic proximity to regions of unrest in the Middle East and their high concentration of foreigners are also considerable factors. Over eighty percent of citizens of Dubai are expats and similar numbers are true throughout the U.A.E and Bahrain. The large urban developments of Manama, Dubai and Abu Dhabi which are home to large concentrations of European and American companies, banks and international organizations and tourists. This puts them at considerable risk. The signing of the "Abraham Accords" may be the final straw that breaks the camel's back. Potentially being seen as another betrayal to the West these accords may enrage those extremists seeking to install islamic states throughout the Arab world. Al-Qa'ida and al-Shabaab have made threats in the past against similar regionalized institutions and also strongly oppose the Israeli state. However, the international atmosphere and population of these Arab Gulf states and their location open them up to more threats. No longer limited to Iraq and Syria but now including Yemen, Africa and potential radicalization as close to home as Saudi Arabia or within their own boarders.
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