Will a Trump Impeachment impact foreign policy?

 In light of the recent formal impeachment inquiry into the Trump administration’s quid pro quo dealings with Ukraine, it is important to also think ahead of what an impeachment could mean for U.S. national security. As the administration fights for political legitimacy and continuity, it is difficult to imagine the White House finding time to address the most pressing current policy issues, such as opioids, gun violence, Afghanistan, North Korea, the trade war, amongst other concerns. Similarly, the impeachment could somehow worsen the already dire state of polarization in America.

With this context in mind, it is important to consider both the short-term of this administration’s ability to effectively conduct foreign policy and the long-term impacts on the United State’s ability to project power in the international arena. In the short-term, impeachment would seriously affect any ambitious policy that the Trump administration is attempting to conduct; this would likely make it more difficult for even the supporters of the impeachment to advocate immediate action because it could impact the success of a popular policy.

However, throughout his term Trump has not accomplished anything major in the foreign policy sphere, and anything he has initiated has not made any significant impacts. For example, North Korea is building more nuclear weapons and testing more dangerous missiles; Iran is defying Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign,” gradually restarting its nuclear program, and pushing back in other ways; the revised trade deal with Canada and Mexico remains unratified; and relations with China and Russia remain tense and unproductive. With this in mind, an impeachment would have little effect on ongoing policy initiatives.

In regard to the long-term implications, an impeachment will likely be damaging to the United States’ positionality in global power competition. Many of his policies and statements have thus far been controversial, confusing, and incoherent, which has already demonstrated a faltering in American power. However, an impeachment would display a level of weakness and lack of faith in the U.S. government from within the country, which would likely signal to other states that the U.S. is not in the place of power it once was. Overall, if an impeachment does occur, it is important to begin thinking now about whether or not this will have a net positive or negative effect on the well-being of the country.