U.S. Policy on Iran Stands Firm as Arms Embargoes Expire

     On October 18, 2020 a decade long U.N. arms embargo on Iran expired. This embargo forbid Iran to purchase any foreign made weapons, tanks or aircraft. The embargo also did not permit Iran to sell any of its weapons to other nations. The "Iran Nuclear Deal" which spawned this embargo has been greatly criticized by the Trump administration on numerous occasions. The United States at this moment formally does not recognize the end of the embargo. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rejected the expiration staying, "The United States is prepared to use its domestic authorities to sanction any individual or entity that materially contributes to the supply, sale, or transfer of conventional arms to or from Iran, as well as those who provide technical training, financial support and services, and other assistance related to these arms." "For the past 10 years, countries have refrained from selling weapons to Iran under various U.N. measures," Pompeo said. "Any country that now challenges this prohibition will be very clearly choosing to fuel conflict and tension over promoting peace and security." The Trump administration also considers the end of the embargo moot due to the reimposing of the U.N. sanctions by the U.S. independent of the international community after withdrawing from the nuclear deal in 2018. 

    The Iranian state called the end of the embargo " a momentous day for the international community... in defiance of the U.S. regime's effort." "Today’s normalization of Iran’s defense cooperation with the world is a win for the cause of multilateralism and peace and security in our region" Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted. Iran also stated it does not intend on a "buying spree" but it can now in theory openly trade arms with friendly nations. In reality however, Iran's economy remains weak due to the U.S. imposed sanctions. Many nations avoid and will continue to avoid arms deals with Iran due to fear of American financial retaliation. Trump administration warned that any sales of weapons to Iran or Iranian weapons exports would be penalized. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency predicts that Iran will likely purchase Russian Su-30 fighter jets, Yak-130 trainer aircraft and T-90 tanks. Iran also may try to buy Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft missile system and its Bastian coastal defense missile system. The DIA worries not only about the advancement of Iran's domestic arsenal but that U.S. arms embargoes failed to stop Iran from selling weapons to Yemeni Houthi rebels. This new ability to export weapons more freely may lead to further destabilization of the region. 

    Iran however has long been outmatched by the Arab Gulf nations with whom the U.S. supports. Six Arab Gulf nations have matched agreed with and matched the reinstated U.S. sanctions and also refuse to recognize the end of the embargo. With this action, the signing of the "Abraham Accords" and multiple deals regarding the sale of F-35 aircraft to Arab Gulf states the U.S.-Gulf alliance grows stronger. As Iran gains strength and seeks more influence over the region the U.S. relationship with Israel and the Arab Gulf states will begin to play an ever increasing role in stabilization of the Middle East.