The US Navy will soon release a Future Naval Force Study, a document that addresses the Navy’s plans for the next few decades. The Department of Defense believes China poses the greatest threat to the security of the United States and, therefore, a strong naval presence in the Indo-Pacific is a requirement. While the US Indo-Pacific Command encompasses all branches of the military, due to the geographical outlay of the region, the most important players will ultimately be the Air Force and the Navy.
The Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, has hinted at what such a plan might entail. Secretary Esper wants to increase the amount of attack submarines as there is a current deficit and the Navy is on track to have only around 40 by 2025. Additionally, the Department of Defense would like the Navy to possess 500 ships. However, the proposed budget for fiscal year 2021 does not offer much money for new naval construction and this is likely to follow in the future. Therefore, there is a huge disparity between the aspirations of the Navy and the reality of a constrained budget.
This plan also hints at infighting within the Department of Defense as the Navy attempted to determine and release a force structure plan last year but failed to do so. Secretary Esper then took over and created his own plan. The Future Naval Force Study provides few concrete details, even in regard to specific types of ships and what exactly they are.
While the Navy, and, in turn, the Department of Defense, are right to worry about encroaching Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific and to prepare by rebuilding and increasing the fleet, there are other factors which may endanger this proposition. The Navy must determine how to best prepare while acknowledging its budgetary constraints.
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