Iran's Wargame Woes

 

  The tensions between the United States and Iran have been rising since May of 2018 when President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal. Tensions were heightened when in January of 2020 a U.S. drone launched an attack near Baghdad International Airport taking out Iranian General Kasim Salemani. Escalating pressure continued into July when an American F-15 intercepted a passenger aircraft from Iran which had deviated from the civilian air corridor over Syria. One week after the F-15 incident a mock U.S. aircraft carrier was photographed leaving the port of Bander Abbas where it was towed to the Strait of Hormuz. 

    The replica aircraft carrier was first spotted between 2013 and 2014 and when questioned the Iranian government claimed it was to be used as a movie prop. However, in 2015 the fake carrier was spotted again during Iran's "Great Prophet 9" wargame. The carrier sported U.S. Navy external markings and seemed to resemble the USS Nimitz which regularly patrols the Persian Gulf. During the exercise "Great Prophet 9" Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launched attacks against the aircraft carrier stand-in using air, land and sea based ballistic missiles. The mockup is merely a barge fashioned with external metal to serve as a symbolic representation of a U.S. Nimitz-class carrier however the attacks are carried out to prove Iran's alleged military superiority over the United States. During the wargame the vessel was damaged but was not intended to be sunk, instead it was repaired to serve the same role again. 

    In response to the increasing tensions with the United States Iran carried out "Great Prophet 14" in late July of 2020. The aircraft carrier mockup yet again served its purpose as a target for rocket attacks. However, during this exercise it was accidentally sunk. This creates a significant problem for the Iranians and for merchant vessels in the region. The sunken carrier now blocks port Bander Abbas's main approach channel. Attempts by ships to circumnavigate the wreck or attempts to remove it also prove very challenging as the surrounding waters only measure forty-five feet in depth. The presence of this barrier poses not only a threat for Iranian state due to the the vital nature of this port but also the potential for an international incident. With tensions already high Western powers are well aware that 21% of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Continued supply of this oil is critical and it is imperative that operations continue normally without interference from the Iranian state. However, with the popularity of this Iranian port and the dangerous nature it now poses it important to understand how an accident of a merchant ship in this port could escalate to dangerous levels. The accidental sinking of a merchant vessel due to the blockage of the port by the fake aircraft carrier could result in misinformation surrounding such an incident and thus perceived malicious intent or intentional negligence could further heighten tensions.