Mice : elephants : : insurgents :
powerful nations
The
very same majestic and gargantuan behemoths possessing the fearsome physical
sway to protect their young from fiercely muscular lions, are all but helpless
in the face of tiny, delicate, scurrying mice. Due to their sheer size and
mass, elephants are among the most powerful creatures in existence. But in the
face of diminutive, almost dainty mice, elephants find themselves at a
disadvantage. Their tusks are useless against these little beasties, and they
do not possess their agility or speed. There are, nonetheless, ways in which
elephants may use their abilities to their advantage against these puny pests.
If able resist the compulsion to use their bulk, often their greatest
advantage, in favor of calm, still patience, an elephant may easily flatten the
furry little fellows by stomping them with deliberate precision.
Let
us, then, compare the US Military to these extraordinary elephants; insurgent
groups or militants to the quick, agile mice; and unmanned aerial vehicles
(UAVs) or drones to the precision strikes of the elephant's patient, precise foot. The
US has carefully assessed the modern threat environment to determine that
ground wars involving tanks, troops, heavy artillery, etc., are now all but
obsolete. With the superpower 'elephants' either armed with menacing
'tusks' (nuclear weapons), or comfortably situated under the protection of an
ally's 'tusks,' open conflict between such 'elephants' is unlikely. We have
moved into an age of proxy wars and insurgent fighters working in loosely
connected cells. These militant mice have found that they may strike at
elephants that they could never hope to overcome on an even battlefield, simply
by devising strategies for irregular warfare that allow them to use their
smaller size and agility to their advantage.
In
spite of decades of experience with conflicts against Native Americans, revolutionaries
in the Philippines, the Vietcong, Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, etc., the US experienced
some regrettable growing pains while adapting to the concept of irregular
warfare. We have now, however, begun to focus on addressing the strengths and
weaknesses of insurgents so that we may use them to our advantage. Insurgents
owe much of their agility and efficiency to the availability of communications
technology that allows groups (or cells) which are geographically remote
relative to one another, to remain in constant contact. This coordinative use
of communications technology can work to our advantage if we are able to
successful monitor communications and use collected data to predict movements
or attacks. This allows us to position our elephant feet in just the right way,
so that when these militant mice scurry beneath them, we may crush them with
ruthless precision.
Perhaps
the best tool we have to serve as this deadly 'elephant's foot' is the drone.
Less costly both financially and in terms of human lives expended over
the course of a given strike, drones may also be the best option for addressing
our inflated defense budget. The US has successfully taken some first steps
toward devising strategies for preventing and, less desirably, responding to
insurgent strikes. We have now to stay the course while keeping the mice away
from the one weapon we cannot use effectively against them, but which they may
use to great effect against us: our tusks (nukes).
These irregular opponents could raise the stakes
exponentially if they managed to get their hands on a weapon of mass destruction,
particularly an armed nuclear device. For obvious reasons, this is highly
undesirable. So...let's not let that happen.
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