It is often difficult to implement a grand strategy because of the
electoral impediments within the U.S. and the often-volatile relationship
between our branches of government. And administrations
that hold different ideals and values make it difficult to implement a clear
and continuing grand strategy for our national security policy.
The grand strategy for America after 9/11 could be summed up as the war
on terror. President Bush waged this war on terror during his time in office,
President Obama recently declared the war on terror over and that al-Qaeda was
on the verge of defeat. While the use of
drone strikes has greatly diminished the threats and capabilities of al-Qaeda,
they still remain. In the month of
August, 19 diplomatic missions across the Middle East and North Africa were
closed based on a conversation between al-Qaeda leader Zawahiri and Nasser al-Wuhayshi, the leader of al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP) that was intercepted by the NSA.
Also, there have been several
violent and deadly terrorist attacks in Africa the past few weeks. One being at an upscale Western mail in Kenya
to which al-Shabab has claimed responsibility.
Another was a deadly attack on a Northern Nigerian agriculture college
that left at least 40 students dead (many of whom were sleeping). While Boko Haram has not claimed
responsibility for this attack it does bear considerable resemblance to their
previous attacks.
Al-Shabab
means “the youth” in Arabic and became the radical wing of the Union of Islamic
Courts in 2006. During that time they
fought against Ethiopian forces that entered Somalia to back the interim government. They impose strict sharia law in the
territories that they control. In February
of 2012 their leader, Ahmed Abdi Godane,
pledged his obedience to al-Qaeda’s Ayman al-Zawahiri. And they have increasingly used guerilla
tactics in their attacks. They do carry
out attacks outside of Somalia, as evidenced by their guerilla-like attack on
the Nairobi Westgate mall.
In English, “Boko Haram” translates
into “Western education is sin.” Boko
Haram’s main goal is to establish a Muslim state in northeastern Nigeria. Their violence has killed more Muslims
despite often seeking to kill Christians and attack Christian institutions. Their primary targets are schools, which make
it quite likely that they were responsible for the attack on the agriculture
college.
There has been a growing partnership between
al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Somalia’s al-Shabab
group and Nigeria’s Boko Haram. Each of
these three groups has been greatly influenced by Saudi based Wahhbism and
seeks to rid Africa of its western influence.
The U.S. has been fighting against al-Qaeda since the attacks on 9/11,
but with the spread of al-Qaeda’s influence in Africa, the U.S. could easily
become more involved than they already are.
The U.S. has
already contributed drones to Kenya to monitor al-Qaeda backed rebels and
Nigeria and Ethiopia have purchased small fleets to monitor militants as well. The U.S. Air Force has encouraged leaders in
Africa to utilize surveillance aircraft to dispel insurgent groups.
In light of the
threats that al-Qaeda still poses in the Middle East and Africa, the fact that
they still target western and U.S. interests, and the connection al-Qaeda has
with regional groups Boko Haram and al-Shabab (along with their recent string
of attacks) should be cause for the current administration to reevaluate the
threat of al-Qaeda and its strategy in the Middle East and Africa. The threat is definitely still there even
though they seem to be focused on the near enemy rather than their far enemy to
the West. It could be easy for these
groups to change the focus and direction of their priorities because they do
have a large number of militants and they do hold large amounts of territory
stretching from West to East Africa.
If we do not help contain threats outside of the U.S., they often find a way to threaten us here at home. As we see the escalation
of violence in Africa, whether it's led by al-Shabab, Boko Haram, or al-Qaeda and its affiliates,
it should continue to demand the attention of our national security and be
incorporated in our grand strategy.
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