New Leadership is in Italy's best interests, and America's
The Atlantic has seemed
suspiciously quiet lately. Greek disaster was (temporarily) averted, while
issues closer to home have grabbed our attention as we brace for Thelma (Barack
Obama) and Louise (John Boehner) to drive their car (the United States of America)
over a cliff (of the fiscal variety) rather than get in trouble with the cops
(ideological crazies on both sides.) But the eerie transatlantic quiet is no
reason to stop worrying about the European Union. It just means we’re looking for
trouble in the wrong places. Sure Ireland is still the bail-out poster child,
Portugal is still OK(ish), Greece still hasn’t imploded, and Spain is still
making progress. Yet Italy’s election next year may be a make-or-break event
for Europe, the ripples of which will not fail to reach American shores. In
spite of urgent chatter in leadership circles supporting a new mandate for
technocrat Mario Monti, America should hope for center-left candidate Pier
Bersani.
Even by
Italian standards, the approaching election is a complex one. Mario Monti, the
technocratic Prime Minister who has overseen a unity government since November
last year is due to resign early after passage of the 2013 budget. Though Monti
has moved to squelch speculation that he may run to renew his mandate, he may
yet return to the Chigi. Meanwhile, disgraced former PM Silvio Berlusconi, the
ever-present Master of Ceremonies of the Kit Kat Klub of Italian politics,
resumed leadership of his People of Liberty Party (PDL), adding to a sense of
disarray on the right. Finally, the newly confident and increasingly capable
left recently chose center-left Democratic Party (PD) leader, Pier Luigi
Bersani, as its candidate amid unexpectedly energetic and enthusiastic turnout.
It has been trendy to support Mario
Monti, and, though unlikely, he may renew his mandate. He has stood up well
after instituting unpopular reforms, and even under recent withering attacks by
Berlusconi’s PDL. Should the election
prove divisive and uncertain, or if the policies of either party appear totally
unpalatable to markets, Monti’s supporters may be able to engineer public
demand for a renewed mandate.
Despite instituting unpopular
reforms and austerity measures, Monti’s government is well-liked. This is
mainly due to technocracy; Italians have often looked to technocratic unity
governments in a crisis. Monti is extraordinarily well respected in Europe as
well, and is credited by Italians and eurocrats alike for instituting one of
the more balanced reform/austerity packages, applying a portion of increased
tax revenues to stimulative infrastructure investment.
It is supposed that only a
technocratic is capable of introducing such reforms in the wildly unpredictable
arena of Italian politics. But this is not the case. Much like European
markets, European and American leadership are highly risk-averse preferring
what they know to what they do not. By that logic, America should desire a
Berlusconi victory. After all, he has been intensely pro-America, would avoid
military cuts, and may even be able to somewhat ease market fears as a familiar
face with familiar small-government rhetoric.
Yet no one wants Berlusconi to
return, least of all America. The United States’ first priority is long-term
peace and stability on the continent, which requires a strong and democratic
Italy. In addition, America’s long-term preferences also include an Italy which
views America favorably, is militarily capable, and is a willing military
partner. In the short term, American recovery demands stability and growth in
Europe. In the medium term, America seeks a reformed Italy with prospects for
reasonable growth and that remains loyal to the United States. No potential
Prime Minister offers the full package.
Bersani comes closest to fitting
the bill. True, his is a former Communist, and represented a the Democrats of
the Left, a socialist outfit, in the European Parliament as recently as 2006.
That may make markets nervous. But Bersani, a competent former Minister of
Economic Development known for market and anti-corruption reforms, is the only
credible candidate to reaffirm Italian democratic institutions.
In spite of his Communist past,
Bersani conducted a range of
liberalizing reforms as a minister in the Prodi government, and has remained a
staunch supporter of the Monti administration. He would likely continue along
the path laid out by Monti, lightening heavy regulatory loads and slimming the
bloated state. Vague suggestions that investment, especially R&D, should
play a greater role might mean a small stimulus sufficient to diminish worries
about severe recession without undermining fragile faith in the Italian debt
situation.
Most importantly, Bersani would
continue these reforms with a democratic, not technocratic, mandate. Another
Monti administration would fail to break the perceived tendency in Italian
politics to develop crises, institute technocracy, and then return to the
dysfunctional system that created the problem. Berlsuconi’s election would only
confirm perceptions of Italian politics as theatre of the absurd. Meanwhile, Bersani’s
history of corruption-fighting and reformism may make him the Prime Minister to
prove that it doesn’t take a technocratic government to create strong policy. Given
broad support from center-right to far left, Bersani may have the democratic
legitimacy necessary to buck his trade union base. Indeed, coming on the heels
of Monti’s tenure, widespread support for centrist reform, and a scattered
opposition may finally allow an intellectual center-left PM time to execute a
full range of reforms.
Pier Bersani is the best option for
both Italy and the United States. Bersani is not the great cheerleader for
America that Berlusconi was, but then neither is Monti. And, like Monti,
Bersani is also likely to cut military spending against America’s preferences.
However, the very low likelihood that America would seek Italian aid in the
near future means that a temporary period of marginally anti-American
government is tolerable in pursuit of long-term ends.
That is the case today. America
needs a stable Europe, and Europe needs a strong Italy. So long as he doesn’t
give in to his party’s statist tendencies, Bersani can reassure markets, blunt
the effects of recession and boost medium- and long-term growth prospects with
targeted investment, reduce chances of EU contagion, and relegitimize Italian democracy.
These are all American priorities. It’s a big bill, but Bersani is the only candidate
with a chance of achieving it.
No comments:
Post a Comment