The Syrian
Civil War began with President Bashir Al-Assad’s oppression of peaceful
protestors calling for democratic reform as a part of the greater Arab Spring
movement. When soldiers of the Syrian
Army refused to fire upon protestors, the soldiers were summarily executed on
the grounds of insubordination. This
created a rift in the military precipitating mass defection. The defectors organized a revolutionary
movement, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), and became the primary opposition to the
Al-Assad Regime. Despite the recent
intervention in Libya, the United Nations has failed to achieve a consensus
within the Security Council authorizing military support in Syria due to the
strong ties from Damascus to Moscow and Beijing. The FSA has been waging an insurgency
campaign against the Al-Assad regime since September 2011 that has left the
likelihood of a decisive military victory for either side unlikely without
external intervention in support of the revolutionaries or a regime change as a
part of internal political reform of the Syrian government. This posting explores the options available
from the perspective of President Al-Assad as the head of the Syrian government
in deciding his policy concerning the civil war.
Option
#1: Pursue Military Victory over the
Rebels
The war in
Syria is divided along sectarian lines with support on both sides thoroughly
entrenched in mutual opposition. The FSA
is trained, organized and equipped to carry out a protracted insurgency
campaign against the Syrian government.
Counter insurgency warfare is a tough business whose victory is not
decided in terms of territory seized, equipment destroyed, and casualties inflicted,
but rather by assertion of the proponents’ authority to govern over the
insurgents without violent rebellion by the latter. A counter insurgency campaign on the part of
the Al-Assad regime will require the Syrian government to rethink how it
qualifies a military victory. If no
concessions are made on behalf of the Syrian government with respect to the
calls for democratic reform, then violent suppression of the insurgency will
become a way of life.
Funding a
domestic counter-insurgency war is difficult with an economy like Syria’s. Heavily dependent on revenue generated from
oil production and taxes on remittances from Syrian nationals, the Syrian
government has been hit hard by trade embargos from the west that have blocked
its oil exports to Europe and caused inflation to skyrocket. External aid packages from Russia, China, and
Iran have not been able to make up for the tanking Syrian economy, which has
forced the Al-Assad regime to liquidate its treasury reserves. For President Al-Assad to continue
suppressing the insurgency without making any major concessions to mollify the
violence his regime will have to generate revenues internally without reliance
on international trade. Raising taxes
and slashing popular social welfare programs like fuel subsidies are the types
of policies that would enable the regime to decrease its budgetary deficit and
continue funding the counter insurgency campaign but would further alienate the
Syrian people. This track will be very
difficult to sustain over the long-term.
Option
#2: Attempt to Broker a Cease-Fire
through an external mediator
A cease-fire
agreement could be brokered between the FSA and the Al-Assad regime. A cessation of violence would likely come at
a steep price in the form of political concessions that will be difficult to
appease opposition groups without President Al-Assad’s resignation. The most recent cease-fire agreement which
was mediated by the UN in April fell apart completely by June. The regime’s history of corruption and
doublespeak will make it difficult to garner the level of trust required to
convince the FSA to lay down its arms.
President
Al-Assad’s resignation and representative democratic elections are the principal
political goals sought by the opposition forces. However any relinquishment of power by
Al-Assad places not only his political future at stake but also his life. The Arab Spring has not been kind to former
rulers. In Libya, Muammar Gaddafi’s fate
was death at the hands of rebel forces following his overthrow and
capture. Regime change in Egypt cost
President Mubarak life in prison on charges of murder. Al-Assad would likely face similar charges
stemming from his authorization to violently suppress protestors. One of President Al-Assad’s biggest
priorities in negotiations should be immunity from prosecution for himself and
members of his regime. This would incur
considerable concessions before a deal including this stipulation becomes
politically palatable to the opposition.
The opposition may not be willing to guarantee any immunity, without
which political negotiations equate to suicide for President Al-Assad.
Option
#3: Surrender to the Rebels and Seek
Political Asylum outside of Syria
Although the
Syrian government has had a great deal of difficulty in its efforts to
eradicate the FSA, the Syrian military is too strong and too large to be
conventionally defeated by the opposition forces without external
assistance. As long as the Syrian
government can maintain its relative advantage in military power over the
rebels, surrender will not be necessary.
However, if external forces intervene on behalf of the FSA, or if the
Al-Assad Regime is unable to continue funding its military due to impending
fiscal collapse, surrender to the rebels must be considered while the regime
still has some sort of leverage it can apply to bargain for their lives. The Syrian stockpile of short range ballistic
missiles equipped with chemical warheads will be a powerful bargaining chip but
the threat of their use should be reserved as a last resort. Weapons of mass destruction and their use are
not taken lightly by the international community, and if Al-Assad brandishes
his chemical weapons it could invite unilateral action in the form of targeted
destruction of these weapons from a third party nation.
If the
situation becomes untenable for the Al-Assad Regime, he must be prepared to
seek political asylum outside of Syria in the interest of
self-preservation. The most likely
destination would be Iran, a country with whom the Al-Assad regime is closely
allied and would be well insulated from political pressure to extradite Al-Assad
for any sort of prosecution. Al-Assad
should make arrangements for a discreet extraction plan from Syria along with
enough cash to sustain himself for the remainder of his years in exile. Alternate locations for Asylum should be
considered as well, possibly Russia or China, as part of a comprehensive
contingency plan.
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