Friday, October 16, 2015

Nuclear Deal 2.0 ?

In attempt to pursue its strategy of denuclearization of the Middle East and Asia after having successfully carried out a deal with Iran. A deal that has just been ratified by Tehran on October 14 2015. The United States is considering the possibility of trying to put a deal in place with Pakistan.
President Sharif is set to visit the US next week, which is when the American government should start pitching to Pakistan a possible deal, that will focus on convincing them to stop producing short range nuclear missiles, much easier to move around and thus to fall in the wrong hands.

However this deal really has to be seen has a strategic objective, something that the US will have to work for in the long run, probably even after the end of the Obama’s administration. 
Pakistan right now resents the US for multiple reasons, firstly they still feel absolutely disrespected after the raid on Bin Laden was carried out without their approval and thus not respecting their sovereignty. Islamabad also did not take very well the fact that the US is assisting India’s civil nuclear program since 2005 even though it is not supposed to, as New Delhi is not a signatory of the Non Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Treaty.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle for this new tentative in the US grand strategy of reduction of nuclear weapons is not so much how Pakistan feels about America, as it is its deep fear and hatred of it nuclear neighbor India. Pakistanis see nuclear weapons as the only viable deterrence that they have on India, which is much stronger than they are.
The strategy here in order to be successful may also have to include India in the deal, in order to convince all parties that they can trust each other; and the US might have to concede in helping Pakistan too on its civilian nuclear program to reassure them that the goal is not just to help India but the entire region. Nevertheless this will no doubt be a hard mission for this administration and probably the next as Pakistan feels every day more left out by the US and India who are increasing their military and commercial ties.



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