Philippe-Armand
de Bonneval
Today,
October 2nd 2015 marks the second day bombing in Syria by the
Russian army. This date also marks the day when European heads of states and
Vladimir Putin will meet in Paris to discuss the situation in Ukraine.
The
Minsk Accords have to be put in place by the end of the year. However there are
still two points in this agreement that promise to be very complicated to agree
on, and be resolved by this deadline. They are, returning the control of the
eastern border of Ukraine back in the hands of the Ukrainian army, as well as
the disarmament of the rebels groups in the regions of Donetsk and Louhansk.
Given the increase in power show that Russia is displaying right now in Syria,
conceding in these two major points to reach a real appeasement of the
situation seems highly unlikely.
Standing
still on these particular point of the Minsk Accords is all the more important
now for Russia because it would help them affirm once again that they do not
change their mind easily and that once they promise something they will do it.
Changing, as Thomas Schelling says when presenting the notion of coerciveness
between states; can make them look weak to their allies; mainly Assad and the
Syrian regime that put their trust in the Russian air strikes. Perhaps even
worse it may show weakness to their opponents not only in Ukraine but also in
Syria too.
To
summarize, the deadlock situation in Ukraine may continue for the immediate
future, especially now that the international community attention will no
longer be focused on what Russia is doing in Ukraine, but more on what Vladimir
Putin and his government are doing in Syria. Nevertheless after the meeting in
Paris today, the world will have a better understanding on how much Russia is
actually prepared to cooperate on the Ukrainian question.
Sources:
-
The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/world/europe/european-leaders-summit-meeting-ukraine.html?ref=world&_r=0
No comments:
Post a Comment