Hamid Karzai is delaying the bilateral security
agreement with the United States, despite the loya jirga’s approval for the agreement - the neighbors are restless.
The common assumption is that if the agreement was to fall through and
American troops left Afghanistan, the country would be overrun again by the
Taliban. Karzai’s delay
is likely just an attempt at securing his legacy and image as a strong leader
that fought for Afghanistan, rather than being a puppet to America. Like with most leaders around the world,
legacy is important, especially when it is necessary to sign away a bit of
national sovereignty to the United States in order to keep the country from
falling back onto worse times.
Theater aside, Pakistan and Tajikistan are watching closely. Both have keen interest in the United States
staying in Afghanistan. While the
Pakistani government may be publicly critical of U.S. drone strikes in the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), it does welcome the U.S. militaryaid and U.S. drones killing Pakistani Taliban leaders. It also benefits from the relative stability
that comes with U.S. presence in Afghanistan.
Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan would strengthen its Pakistani branch located
in the FATA along the border which would impact internal security in
Pakistan. Obviously, due to the social
stress and tension that foreign military presence brings neither Afghanistan
nor Pakistan want American presence in their countries if they can avoid it,
but right now, it seems that the bilateral security agreement is the best
option.
While Tajikistan does not necessarily come to mind right away with respect to
American presence in Afghanistan, because of its common border with
Afghanistan, it has significant interest in having its neighbor as stable as
possible. Tajikistan is one of the least
developed former Soviet Union states and suffered greatly during its civil war in
the mid-90s. The southern region of the
country is particularly poor and the border with Afghanistan is long and largely unguarded.
Along with being a low income country with limited defense funds, this
makes securing the border especially difficult.
In addition, President Emomali Rakhmon, after having been in office for
good twenty years, was re-elected on November 6th for his fourth
seven-year term (It is noteworthy that the U.S. and the E.U. have not as of yet
recognized any election in Tajikistan as free and fair since its independence). Tajikistan has seen an increase in Islamist
militancy and drug trafficking over the past three to five years. In order to prevent "spillover" between conflicts in Central Asia, the U.S. has increased military aid to Tajikistan, despite the large amount of known corruption in the government. Another attempt to counter this increase in
militancy, in October 2012 Rakhmon extended a lease to Russia for a military
base left over from the Soviet era for another thirty years. This may give a good idea about how
vulnerable parts of Tajikistan could be if the U.S.-Afghan agreement fell
through. Unfortunately for Tajiks, even if the U.S. keeps military presence in Afghanistan, they are still denied constitutional democracy, economic development and freedom of speech.
Hopefully Karzai does not overdo his play to keep face - if the agreement is not signed, his legacy may mean instability and insecurity not just for Afghans but also Pakistanis and Tajiks.
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