Open Source Intel from DPRK's November 29th Test

How much progress has North Korea made in their stated goal of creating an ICBM?

To have a usable ICBM, you primarily need two things: (1) a missile, and (2) a warhead. North Korea’s challenges have been creating a re-entry vehicle (RV) that will not burn up during re-entry, and miniaturizing the warhead to fit into an RV.
On November 29^th, North Korea successfully tested an ICBM for the third time. However, everything about this test is new. It flew for 53 minutes (6 minutes longer than any previous test), and reached an apogee of more than 4,500 km (2,800 miles), flying 10 times higher than the international space station. The government is claiming that this missile is a new Hwasong-15, a separate class from the previously seen Hwasong-14 model.

Open source intelligence from a variety of experts yields several insights. First, the Hwasong-15 is much larger and far-reaching than any previous DPRK missile. It can carry a substantially larger warhead, certainly a thermonuclear device and perhaps one fitted with MIRVs or decoys. However, we do not know what was in the RV that was tested November 29^th- if it was light, mock warhead (which it probably was), then we do not know the range it could reach in an actual attack if it was fitted with a heavy payload. Several analysts commented on Hwasong-15’s physical similarity to the American Titan II missile.
This new missile also comes fitted with not one, but two engines for its first stage. And, as expert David Wright notes, the second stage appears to hold twice as much propellant as the Hwasong-14, allowing for an enhanced thrust and a higher peak altitude. Both of these features demonstrates that this is truly a new missile.
The test was also carried out at 3 A.M. local time, something not typically seen in North Korea’s missile tests. While we still do not definitively know the reason, open source analysts have offered potential explanations: North Korea wants to show serious intent to use nuclear weapons operationally, or to show the unpredictable nature of the threat. It should be noted that our respective missile defense systems have never been tested at night time.
North Korea is also experimenting with solid fuel for its rockets, however there is no indication that the last test was utilizing this technology. Solid fuel (what we use in all of our nuclear missiles) is preferred as it is more precise and can decrease preparation time as it has a long shelf-life. Liquid fuel is corrosive to the metal lining and requires a separate fueling mission before launch, adding to potential detection time.

Should we expect more tests? Definitely. Kim Jong Un’s Birthday is January 9^th. Kim Jonh Il’s Birthday is February 16^th. The 2018 Winter Olympics, held in South Korea, start February 9 and end February 25^th. Full list of public holidays here.