Monday, November 13, 2017

Trump's Dronewar to be More Big League and Winning than Loser Obama's







But not.

Trump is inheriting an 16-year old, multi-appendaged monster called the War on Terror. One of its favorite hobbies during the past decade: drone strikes. The official (yet highly contested) number of drone strikes under the Obama administration is 542. These strikes killed an estimated 3,797 people, including at least 324 civilians.

The election of Trump has many people wondering how the drone program will change under the new administration.

In a 2015 Fox and Friends interview, Trump said, “When you get these terrorists, you have to take out their families. They care about their lives, don’t kid yourself. When they say they don’t care about their lives, you have to take out their families.” It would apparently be wrong to hold people to what they say during a campaign, so lets look at Trump's actions post-inauguration.

There is little reason to believe Trump will meaningfully improve Obama's drone program. Many predict a significant uptick in drone strikes. On the first, second, and third days of his presidency, Trump ordered drone strikes in Yemen. And though Obama earned a negative reputation for his strikes, Trump is surpassing him in frequency. According to AlJazeera, Obama conducted one strike every 5.4 days; Trump has thus far averaged one strike or raid every 1.25 days.

On his trip to Southeast Asia, Trump vowed to loosen the restrictions on US soldiers to enable them to take down terrorists, whom he called “thugs and criminals and predators, and — that’s right — losers.”

What will changes look like? Trump’s national security advisors have suggested three major changes in the drone program:

1)   The targets of kill missions by the military and the C.I.A. should be expanded to include foot-soldier jihadists with no special skills or leadership roles

2)   Drone attacks and raids should no longer undergo high-level vetting

3)     CIA should have more territory access with overt strikes in Afghanistan (and possibly Yemen and Syria), instead of just Pakistan

My thoughts:
1)   Are these combatants? Is this ethical? In adherence with jus in bello? This will surely lead to change the way civilian casualties are counted. Obama-appointed NSC counterterrorism expert Luke Hartig states, these targets "may be couriers, bodyguards, or propagandists who, while lawful military targets under the laws of war, may not pose a continuing, imminent threat to U.S. persons."

2)     Why even suggest this publicly…? This is likely to increase civilian casualty. Seems reckless.

3)     Ok

Some are worried about the proposed increase of authority for the Central Intelligence Agency. Human rights groups think the CIA is less willing to honestly report civilian casualties than the military is.

Critics say the Obama administration’s transparency in admitting causalities has actually led to negative foreign and domestic views of the US drone program, creating red tape and making the job abroad harder.

Luke Hartig says, “I don’t know what the Trump administration is specifically considering in Afghanistan, but if their new plans for the war decrease any of that transparency, that would be a big strategic and moral mistake.”

And in the grand scheme of things, is the drone program even helping? Years of analysis indicate that drone strikes undermine the respect for international law, serve to further radicalize opponents, and may be counterproductive to our mission in the War on Terror. The film "Dirty Wars" (currently on Netflix) is great in examining this debate.



Though the personnel conducting the targeted killings characterize them as 'surgical' 'clinical' or 'precision' strikes, they tend to yield extensive civilian casualty, ranging from 8 to 21% of total killed. As one Atlantic op-ed writer states, “A surgeon as sloppy as that would be indicted."

I concur with a conclusion in the Atlantic: “Al-Qaeda and ISIS are dangerous abominations. Fighting them is just, even if the fight involves the inadvertent killing of innocents, but only if due care is taken to avoid those deaths whenever possible.” In short, we need to tighten quality control (evidently lacking in the Obama-era drone program), not loosen it. Trump’s proposals of broader authority, potentially leading to enhanced secrecy do not do this.


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