Russian Salami Tactics in Foreign Elections

Based on the Kremlin's recent activity, it is clear that Russia is attempting to make themselves larger and stronger (annexation of Crimea, neo-expansionism in Ukraine) while making other countries smaller and weaker.

To do this, Russia is using the following tactics to influence foreign governments: (1) validating separatist mentalities, (2) supporting opposition groups, and (3) deepening internal divisions. These tactics will undermine strength and unity in foreign nations, comparatively making Russia stronger.

Why these tactics? Because Russia has no chance of weakening US or NATO hegemonic power through conventional means. As Politico states, “The Kremlin’s overall strategy to dismantle the Western alliance is best encapsulated by a 2013 article in a Russian military journal, where what’s since become known as the “Gerasimov Doctrine” was laid down in writing. Adopting tactics of subterfuge traditionally associated with “non-linear” or “hybrid” war, the doctrine calls for the use of non-military over military measures by a four-to-one ratio, thus allowing a conventionally weaker power like Russia (whose military budget is one-tenth that of NATO’s) to fight asymmetrically by exploiting its adversaries’ weaknesses.”

Low-level subversion or meddling in one country is unacceptable, but affecting the internal makeup of dozens of western adversaries? Truly scary. If these actions go unaddressed (or worse: unnoticed), they will collectively add up to a destabilized NATO, EU, etc.  After all, “A West that is divided, inert and unsure of its own basic values is not one that will resist Russia’s revisionist agenda” (Politico). 

Validating separatist mentalities

Using “automated social-network accounts” (bots) to propagate “digital misinformation campaigns” (fake news), Russia has shown a determined desire to interfere in international separatist movements.

These potentially include: Catalonia, Kurdish homeland, Brexit, Venice, and more.

In August of 2016, Moscow hosted a conference (funded in part by the Russian government) that brought together leaders of foreign sucessionist movements. Italian, Catalan, Basque, Northern Ireland, Scottish, Californian, Texan, and Puerto Rican separatist groups met to discuss anti-globalism and separatist issues. It is important to note that Russia does not kindly entertain secessionist movements within its borders.

Supporting opposition and fringe groups

As is typical, the Kremlin is targeting leaders that would be particularly tough on Russia (Hillary Clinton) and opting to support those that may be more lenient towards Russia, and perhaps even lift sanctions (Marine Le Pen, Donald Trump).

More interesting, however, the Kremlin is supporting fringe and opposition groups, as well. This in order to diffuse the popular vote and thus weaken the chances of the best-qualified candidate winning. Russia does this both through financial and political support. This was evident when it was discovered Russia bought Facebook ads in support of Jill Stein, Bernie Sanders, and Donald Trump. The ad bought in support of Jill Stein read, “Choose peace and vote for Jill Stein. Trust me. It’s not a wasted vote. … The only way to take our country back is to stop voting for the corporations and banks that own us. #GrowaSpineVoteJillStein"

Looking to Europe, Russia is also supporting post-communist German Left party, the Italian Five Star movement, and many right-wing Euroskeptic groups that want to pull from the EU in favor of nationalism.

France’s far-right National Front Party admitted they received $12.2 million in loans from a Kremlin-affiliated bank in 2014, according to Bloomberg. And it asked for another loan of $27.7 million in February, the report added.

Deepening internal division

If this isn't enough, the Kremlin is also exploiting the existing polarization of domestic US politics and trying to deepen the divide.

Recent news has come out that Russia purchased several advertisements and authored posts that concerned current racial tension in the US. Facebook has agreed to turn over 3,000 Russian-purchased advertisements. Some of these ads are supportive of groups such as Antifa and Black Lives Matter, while other ads pose these groups as a threat.

Russia may be using similar division tactics in other countries.

These activities beg the questions:

How do we categorize this aggression?

How do we defend against similar acts?

What is the appropriate response?

Until then, we clearly need to work on identifying foreign-influence in domestic politics. This requires extensive cooperation and good faith from social media sites. Zuckerberg has responded, “We will do our part to defend against nation states attempting to spread misinformation and subvert elections. We’ll keep working to ensure the integrity of free and fair elections around the world, and to ensure our community is a platform for all ideas and force for good in democracy.”