One of the
few cogently defined issues separating the Presidential candidates in the 2012
election is national defense, specifically the defense budget. Governor Romney’s plan envisions a defense
budget of around 4% of GDP, while President Obama would like to see funding
reduced as the U.S. withdraws from the war in Afghanistan and the military transitions
to peacetime operations. Although the exact
difference between the two plans is difficult to ascertain, most authorities
are in consensus that the gap would be measured in hundreds of billions of
dollars. According to Bloomberg.com,
some of the key programs that would be funded by the additional outlays include
the Army’s Stryker armored vehicles, the Navy’s Aegis destroyer and Virginia class
submarine, and the Air Force’s Reaper drones and its newest 5th generation
fighter jet the F-35.
Currently the
F-35 is still in development with 60 of the fighters built and currently
employed for training applications, but the F-35 isn’t the only 5th
generation fighter jet in the U.S. arsenal.
The F-22 employed by the Air Force is the most advanced operational fighter
jet in the world and the fleet of over 180 of these fighters has been in
service in the American military since 2005.
The F-22 simply outclasses the competition due to its hegemony over the
skies as the only 5th generation fighter jet in the world currently
employed. Thanks to a federal law
banning its export, the United States has the only military with this class of fighter,
but that monopoly won’t last forever.
Russia and
China are developing their own 5th generation fighters; however,
they are estimated to be a long way from becoming fully operational, let alone
achieving numerical parity with the U.S. Fleet. The Russian PAK FA/T-50 fighter is scheduled
for introduction in 2015/2016 and currently their developmental fleet is
estimated at 5 aircraft. Less
information is available about the Chinese J-series fighter which is further
behind in its development, but it is expected to be introduced in 2018. The global economic conditions will likely
impact both competing development programs resulting in delays, at a minimum. The considerable cost of these programs and
the unit cost of production of these fighters will seriously impede either
nation from matching American supremacy of 5th generation fighters
for many more years beyond their anticipated introduction dates.
Assuming that the existing U.S. arsenal
does not expand by a single fighter, how long would it take for the Chinese or
the Russians to match the American fleet of F-22’s? The per-unit cost of the Russian PAK FA/T-50
is estimated at around $50 million. Aggregate
Russian spending on national defense is much more difficult to project, however,
estimates from globalsecurity.org give a ballpark figure of around $50 billion
annually. Based on these figures, the Russian Government would have to devote
20% of its annual defense budget in order to produce a fleet of 200 aircraft,
an absurd reallocation of funding that would that impose major constraints upon
the rates of production. The outlook for
the Chinese J series fighter is even less threatening with analysis from globalsecurity.org
concluding that “The J-31 might achieve an initial operational capability in
the 2025 timeframe.”
Given the
dire fiscal outlook of the federal budget and uncertain threats from competing
national efforts in developing 5th generation fighters, the F-35
program along with defense spending in general will be difficult for Americans
to stomach should Romney be elected and will likely be an easy target for cuts
if President Obama is reelected.
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