The eurozone
crisis clearly empowered euro-skeptics’ positions against the proponents of the
European unity. At first glance, Greek, Irish, Portuguese, and now Spanish
developments serve as a good illustration of why the common currency was a bad
idea from the very beginning and how irresponsibility of certain states creates
problems for the rest in a too much intermingled community. Many forecast that
sooner or later Greece (and not only) will have to leave eurozone and might be
forced out of the EU. In a traditionally euro-skeptic UK David Cameron hinted
that Britain may even consider holding an EU referendum, though not until 2015
general elections, in the hope that Europe's fate will be clearer by then.
On the other
hand, official Brussels doesn't seem to be giving up. Jose Manuel Barroso’s 2012 State of the Union Address to the European Parliament contained many
important messages for observers and initiated a new wave of debate both in the
European Parliament and outside. “Europe needs a new thinking… globalization
demands more European unity; More unity demands more integration,” he said. In
short, Barroso is offering a new reforms package, final version of which, after
being thoroughly debated and scrutinized by MPs and wider public of experts,
will be presented by the 2014 Parliamentary Elections. Main pillars of the
package are deeper economic and long-awaited political unity, as well as “truly
collective defense.” While he spoke a lot about deepening unity in all major
sectors, he has not mentioned widening (expanding) the Union at all.
Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman |
Of course,
Barroso’s proposal is far from being adopted and probably will have more
critics than any other European treaty has ever had, but so far his fight in
the legislature is receiving support of the executives in the European
capitals. With or without the help of Sarkozy, Angela Merkel seems determined to
keep Greece in the Union and in the eurozone. European Central Bank’s decision
to buy unlimited volumes of bonds from indebted eurozone countries, as well as
Merkel’s yesterday’s visit to Athens are clear indications that EU is not going
to give up that easy.
History teaches us that it often takes big crisis,
wars or other types of shocks to push societies to the new level. After all,
current Europe is the product of WWI and WWII. “The EU may move in this
[further integration] direction, but in the absence of major shock, the
movement will be very slow and ambiguous,” wrote William Wohlforth
(International Security, Vol.24) in 1999. Can this crisis serve as a major
shock that will push EU towards further unity? If yes, what will that mean for
the US? Wohlforth thinks, that “if the EU were a state, the world would be
bipolar,” but in order to “create the balance of power globally EU would have
to suspend the balance of power locally.” According to Kathleen McNamara,
“assuming the EU succeeds in deepening its level of integration and adding new
members, it will soon have influence on matters of finance and trade equal to
America’s; A more balanced strategic relationship is likely to follow” (Rethinking
Europe, Kupchan 1999). And as Barroso pointed out in his address to the
European Parliament, “In the 21st-century, even the biggest
European countries run the risk of irrelevance in between the global giants
like the US or China,” but Europe united
as a “federation of nations” is likely to have a say in relationship with these
giants. Today economically and politically united and prosperous Europe is in the
US interests not because it sets example and contains “socialist club,” but because
it has the capacity to share US’s military and financial burden. Europe, as it is
today, is already an ally in Afghanistan or Libyan crisis, but only politically
united EU, with much faster decision-making tools and unified foreign policy, will
be able to cost-share as much as Washington is asking to.
Writing about the need for the reinvention of European dream, Anne-Marie Slaughter concluded that what Europe needs
today is another Schuman or Monnet. I doubt anyone sees new Shuman or Monnet in
Jose Manuel Barroso, but Angela Merkel has a very good track record so far.
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