Trump's Tehran Tirade

As the incoming Biden administration transitions over the coming months one thing has been made entirely clear, President Trump intends to force Washington and Tehran onto a collision course. As President Trump’s time in office dwindles he has made Iran the primary target of his capricious temper. In early November - just days after the presidential election - Trump announced his plan for a new “flood” of sanctions on Iran.




The first wave of this flood of sanctions went into effect on November 16th. These sanctions were imposed on Bonyad Mostafazan, an organization that the U.S. Treasury Department described as being a patronage network for Ayatollah Khamenei. Sanctions were imposed upon the Iranian Intelligence Minister as well in response to his alleged role in humans rights violations. As these sanctions come just two months before Biden comes into office, it seems clear that these new sanctions are intended to make Biden’s renewal of relations with Iran more difficult.




Trump’s tirade against Iran post-election has not stopped there. His intention to explode the possibility of Biden’s recovery for U.S.-Iran relations reportedly almost became literal. Just one day after these new sanctions went into effect, reports indicated that President Trump had pursued his options of striking Iran’s primary nuclear facility following a report of a large increase in Iran’s nuclear stockpile.




Just one week later on November 25th came the latest and perhaps heaviest blow to Iran as its top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was killed in a roadside ambush. In response, Iran has enacted a law requiring an immediate increase in the enrichment of uranium. Given the drastic responses considered by President Trump to the prior increase in Iran’s nuclear stockpile, the concern now is what course of action the president may choose next.




The actions taken against Iran are eroding what possibility remained for Biden to revive the JCPOA. The assassinations of Qasem Soleimani and Moshen Fakhrizadeh, Trump's push for his maximum pressure sanctions campaign and its economic costs, and the instability exposed by Trump in dealing with American presidents has made the possibility for renewed diplomacy with the U.S. a hard sell. It will be exceedingly difficult for Biden to convince Iran that it should re-enter a deal and drawdown its nuclear program whilst its top level officials are being assassinated, its people continue to suffer from a strangled economy, and any deal made with the U.S. could be scuttled when the next president comes into office.