This past Monday a Standard Missile Interceptor 3 (SM-3) successfully shot down an unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile. This is the first successful test of its kind for the SM-3, making it just the second U.S. interceptor technology to demonstrate this capability alongside the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system.
There could be long-reaching consequences from the U.S.'s development of this capability.
Officials in Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang perceive missile defense technology such as this as strategically destabilizing, undermining their strike capabilities to an extent that their deterrent posture is put into question.
Strategic stability is eroded when the United States continues to pursue absolute military advantage over its adversaries by pursuing technology like this. Instead of reinforcing the perception of mutual vulnerability that has been the cornerstone of deterrence between nuclear powers, U.S. missile defense systems destabilize the strategic landscape by limiting the retaliatory capabilities of adversaries.
Development of this technology could draw the U.S. into an arms race as adversaries feel incentivized to develop new technology that can counteract these defense systems. This has already begun with regards to the development of hypersonic technology by China and Russia or the large road-mobile ICBM unveiled by North Korea this year that may be capable of overwhelming missile defense systems with multiple entry vehicle technology.
The U.S. should be mindful of the perceptions of other countries like China and Russia when developing missile defense technology. The development and deployment of these U.S. systems will likely result in only more threats.
So long as nuclear powers believe that national security relies on their ability to retaliate, missile defense technology will interfere with efforts to reduce these weapons. These defenses are moreso a dangerous stoking of the security dilemma between the U.S. and it's adversaries than a realistic solution.
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