Lost in the news coming from Syria and Iran, King Mohammed
VI of Morocco recently visited the White House.
Negotiations seeking a resolution to the Western Sahara conflict are
evidently on the back burner, as the conflict was mentioned only perfunctorily
in a joint statement between the two leaders.
For decades the U.S. and the international community have
pursued comprehensive solutions that would at once end the plight of the
stateless Sahrawi people and create firm regional borders. This “rational-comprehensive” model or “root”
method of problem solving, as described by Lindblom in the classic article “TheScience of Muddling Through,” has proved to be ineffective in the Western
Sahara. If gridlock is to be overcome then
thinking on this conflict must shift from a comprehensive solution to a “branch”
method of successive limited comparisons of narrowed, possible options.
(For more info, ask....Javier Bardem?)
Defining values and objectives in the Western Sahara has proven difficult for the U.S. The U.S. supports a settlement that maintains Moroccan authority over the region in recognition that Morocco is a major non-NATO ally in an unstable region and that a newly independent Western Sahara is likely to be inherently unstable, running the risk of exploitation by jihadist forces. But this viewpoint denies the right to self-determination of the Sahrawi people. The U.S. supports Morocco as a relatively secular and free society while Morocco denies political freedom to the Sahrawis and has violated human rights in the recent past.
Defining values and objectives in the Western Sahara has proven difficult for the U.S. The U.S. supports a settlement that maintains Moroccan authority over the region in recognition that Morocco is a major non-NATO ally in an unstable region and that a newly independent Western Sahara is likely to be inherently unstable, running the risk of exploitation by jihadist forces. But this viewpoint denies the right to self-determination of the Sahrawi people. The U.S. supports Morocco as a relatively secular and free society while Morocco denies political freedom to the Sahrawis and has violated human rights in the recent past.
Or perhaps Obama and the King have it right –
we shouldn’t even attempt to achieve a solution to the problem. Just ignore the small Sahrawi population until
Morocco can populate and develop the region to the point that its claim will be
incontestable.
Separating the means from the ends, or rather the policy
outcomes stemming from defined objectives, is often impossible. For example, the suffering of the Sahrawi
people could be alleviated by funneling international aid through Algeria to
refugees, but this may be a policy goal in its own right for some people.
It has proved impossible to achieve across the board
consensus on values and objectives from the various policy making
constituencies. There is a strong
faction in the U.S. Congress that supports the Sahrawi cause and advocates a
referendum by the Western Saharan population which would include political
independence. Others want to remove
restrictions on the massive aid the U.S. provides to Morocco for use to develop
the disputed territory. Internationally,
Northern African countries support Algeria and the Sahrawi cause and ostracize Morocco,
while Morocco’s allies France and Spain adamantly reject efforts to authorize
the UN to monitor human rights abuses.
Even on issues that have the most consensus it is
impossible to identify and analyze every policy option. Every party agrees in principle that the
condition of the refugees should be improved, but how to do so efficiently and
effectively? What kind of aid would be
most effective? How can aid be prevented
from being exploited by jihadist elements that may be mixed in the refugee
camps? Is there a way to use aid to
induce an amenable political outcome?
The gears of the Western Saharan conflict have to be
greased if we are going to see any shift in the positions of the parties
involved. The U.S. should seek to build
on existing policies through incremental change instead of advocating a
dramatic, comprehensive solution.
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