Who
is Hassan Rouhani?
Rouhani is a Muslim cleric, former diplomat, head of
Iranian think tank Center for Strategic Research,
and most recently, seventh President of Iran.
His election in June 2013 came as a surprise to many; the Washington
Post Editorial Board mentioned him as an afterthought and declared he would
“not be allowed to win.”
His clear departure from the rhetoric of former president Ahmadinejad
was evidently welcome in a time of economic hardship and runaway inflation.
Is
he a radical? Reformer? Liberal?
Not really, no.
While Rouhani ran on what was ostensibly a “reformist” platform, he does
not appear to have drastic reform objectives, at least not the kind of reform
that the American media has drooled over these past few weeks. Within the Iranian sphere he is a moderate, and his centrism has
served him well in a deeply divided political climate. Rouhani’s foreign policy stance is one of conditional pragmatism; he plans to do what he can to negotiate a
lifting of the sanctions without creating a break in the continuity of Iranian
grand strategy.
How
credible is Rouhani in Iran?
Thus far he has walked Khamenei’s line and appears
to have the Supreme Leader’s full backing; that their friendship dates back to
the 1979 revolution helps. Rouhani also
ran with the support of former presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami-two endorsements
symbolic of his coalition from various points on the political spectrum. His
election hope-and-change platform won him 51% of the vote, and a large portion
Iranian public continues to project optimism about his ability to bring Iran
out of isolation- although
many are still skeptical as to the propriety of rekindling US-Iran ties.
Where
does he stand on nukes?
While it looks like Rouhani hopes to get to the table and repair US-Iran
relations to some extent, he won’t be willing to shut down the nuclear program. The President invested 16 years in Iran’s
Supreme National Security Council and served two as the country’s top nuclear
negotiator; he may be willing to adopt transparency measures, but not to give
up the centrifuges. He is more likely to
try and build enough diplomatic trust through good-faith gestures (or
‘heroic flexibility’ as Khamenei has said) to
make the nuclear program more palatable.
This trust-building can only happen incrementally.
Where
does he stand on Syria?
There is little reason to think
that Rouhani’s election represents a major break in Iranian policy towards
Syria. In all likelihood, the Islamic
Republic will continue to provide unconditional support to the al Assad
regime. Rouhani has, however, offered to
facilitate a dialogue in the Syrian civil conflict, a gesture
that was roundly rejected by the Syrian National Coalition. In late August,
the President lamented the
use of chemical weapons in Syria on Twitter, but
later expressed a firm belief that intervention
in Syria would constitute a violation of international law.
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