Is Space Force the Next Homeland Security?

 As Celeste Ward Gventer notes, the prospect of a United Spaces Space Force was met with, among other reactions, befuddlement and even derision in some quarters. Part of this is due to the fact that it seems to invoke the concept of a war fought in space, for which there is not only zero precedent but of which there is likely minimal threat. To this end, Gventer makes the point that the operations Space Force is likely to be tasked with are fundamentally efforts to support American strategic goals, most of which would fall under the purview of other branches of the military; to create a new and equal branch of the military, then, which is the Trump administration’s stated ambition, would seem superfluous. 

With the 2003 founding of the Department of Homeland Security came a reconceptualization of what policies and tasks fell under the “homeland security” umbrella. Notably, three immigration-related agencies (Customs and Border Patrol, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and Citizenship and Immigration Services) were founded under the DHS umbrella; the Federal Emergency Management Agency, founded during the Carter administration, was also moved into DHS. This represents not only an architectural shift, but a conceptual one, as it implicitly designated immigration and disaster preparedness as homeland security issues. Far fewer issues have been moved out of the realm of national security. This has led to significant criticisms of DHS, with the Cato Institute calling it a "bureaucratic superstructure."

The creation of an independent Space Force presents the risk of the same phenomenon occurring in relation to the domain of space–especially if the tasks assigned to the Space Force encompass everything having to do with satellites, as Gventer notes. Furthermore, there is a risk of the relationship between Space Force and Air Force (i.e. the semi-independence of Space Force) paralleling the relationship between the Marines and the Navy. Altering the architecture of the national security state requires careful planning, not simply a rushed implication of the desire to conquer new frontiers. Hopefully, the Space Force won’t provide too dire of a lesson in this domain. 

Biden's Credibility Problem

During the initial period of racial unrest after the police killing of George Floyd, the Soufan Center pointed out that global perceptions of America as racially oppressive may diminish our credibility abroad as a leader in human rights. If President Trump continues to sow doubt about the legitimacy of our election, the same thing may happen to our credibility as a democracy. 

Though most of the government seems to have accepted Joe Biden as the President-elect and is preparing accordingly, President Trump has refused to accept his defeat or issue a formal concession, instead pursuing seemingly baseless allegations of voter fraud in multiple state courts. Though many predicted that Trump could refuse to accept defeat, what’s more surprising and concerning is the extent to which he has developed a sphere of influence willing to echo these allegations, in whole or in part: Congressional Republicans have insisted that the election is not over and some have even concurred outright with the assertion that voter fraud took place. Though some conservative media have pushed back on Trump’s claims, other prominent conservative media outlets–both mainstream and alternative–have begun to “investigate” (and provide dubious evidence for) their veracity. Finally, surveys show that only about 20% of Republicans believe that Biden won legitimately, and a YouGov survey found that 75% of respondents (across both parties) believe that some fraud occurred–though only 3% of Biden voters (as opposed to 81% of Trump voters) claimed that it was sufficient to alter the outcome.

While all of this is relatively established news, far less established is its implications for the U.S.’s credibility as a promoter of global democracy. Though any damage in this vein can be attributed to Trump, it is still very much Biden’s problem: the success of his administration’s global policy endeavors, particularly at the Department of State, will arguably depend on the extent to which he can restore the United States’ image. Though U.S. defense resources are still highly sought-after, no emerging democracy worth its weight in ballots would look to the U.S. as a moral leader at this moment. By no fault of his own, Biden will take the helm of a country that can hobble its own democracy from within based on the dying gasps of a would-be autocrat. (While it's rare to see metaphorical dying gasps come in the form of 3am tweets, these are, after all, "unprecedented times.") America’s treatment of minorities has had a clear impact on our credibility as a bastion of human rights, and our credibility as a beacon of democracy is quickly following suit. While there is reasonable debate about the merits and ethics of promoting democracy abroad, all of our leaders have a stake in maintaining the functionality of our own elections–and that means loudly condemning and correcting the lies that hurt our democracy here at home.

Trump's Tehran Tirade

As the incoming Biden administration transitions over the coming months one thing has been made entirely clear, President Trump intends to force Washington and Tehran onto a collision course. As President Trump’s time in office dwindles he has made Iran the primary target of his capricious temper. In early November - just days after the presidential election - Trump announced his plan for a new “flood” of sanctions on Iran.




The first wave of this flood of sanctions went into effect on November 16th. These sanctions were imposed on Bonyad Mostafazan, an organization that the U.S. Treasury Department described as being a patronage network for Ayatollah Khamenei. Sanctions were imposed upon the Iranian Intelligence Minister as well in response to his alleged role in humans rights violations. As these sanctions come just two months before Biden comes into office, it seems clear that these new sanctions are intended to make Biden’s renewal of relations with Iran more difficult.




Trump’s tirade against Iran post-election has not stopped there. His intention to explode the possibility of Biden’s recovery for U.S.-Iran relations reportedly almost became literal. Just one day after these new sanctions went into effect, reports indicated that President Trump had pursued his options of striking Iran’s primary nuclear facility following a report of a large increase in Iran’s nuclear stockpile.




Just one week later on November 25th came the latest and perhaps heaviest blow to Iran as its top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was killed in a roadside ambush. In response, Iran has enacted a law requiring an immediate increase in the enrichment of uranium. Given the drastic responses considered by President Trump to the prior increase in Iran’s nuclear stockpile, the concern now is what course of action the president may choose next.




The actions taken against Iran are eroding what possibility remained for Biden to revive the JCPOA. The assassinations of Qasem Soleimani and Moshen Fakhrizadeh, Trump's push for his maximum pressure sanctions campaign and its economic costs, and the instability exposed by Trump in dealing with American presidents has made the possibility for renewed diplomacy with the U.S. a hard sell. It will be exceedingly difficult for Biden to convince Iran that it should re-enter a deal and drawdown its nuclear program whilst its top level officials are being assassinated, its people continue to suffer from a strangled economy, and any deal made with the U.S. could be scuttled when the next president comes into office.

Fall 2020 Final Exam

 

Fall 2020 Final Exam

Diplomacy 742: National Security Policy

November 30, 2020

 

Please answer one of the following three questions.  Submit your completed final to Dr. Farley by 2:15pm today.

1.  Should the United States embrace a policy of Containment against China?  Outline the positives and negatives of pursuing such a policy, and consider whether the United States is capable of maintaining Containment in the medium and long term.
2. Has the power of the executive over national security overwhelmed the bounds set by the Constitution?  Contemplate the arguments for and against executive supremacy in the national security sphere, and describe reforms that might better delineate responsibilities across the US government.
3. How well does the existing architecture of the national security state enable the United States to use all of its tools for international influence? 

Is America Winning the Fight Against COVID-19?

As the end of 2020 slowly draws near, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Moderna has announced that they are applying for FDA approval for their COVID-19 vaccine. This is the second company to apply for such approval. Now having two separate vaccines available prior to the end of this year would be monumental for American citizens. Another vaccine could and would most likely allow many aspects of everyone’s lives to get closer to being the way they were prior to this pandemic. The increased success of these companies working on vaccines exemplifies that this global health crisis could be ending soon. 

Not only did another vaccine come closer to being released, but also President-Elect Joe Biden’s nominee for National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, saying that America and the Biden administration will “put its foot down” regarding China and making “public health a national security issue”. As the transition to this new administration continues not only do American citizens see that Biden will take measures to ensure public health is addressed but the world also sees this trend. Sullivan continued his remarks by alluding to the fact that Washington cannot let Beijing allow for something like this to happen again. These statements and others made by Sullivan illustrate that the Biden administration will pressure Beijing to control its public health better, along with ensuring that American public health is a top priority moving forward. 

America is taking steps to combat the public health crisis that is COVID-19, and this new vaccine is another step to hopefully defeating this national security enemy. Adding yet another vaccine to an administration (starting January 20th) that will actively fight this pandemic shows that not only is the world getting closer to winning, but America more specifically is getting closer to winning this fight against COVID-19. 

Make Think Tanks Cool Again

Naomi Seibt is a 19-year-old German teen with a large online following. However, her fame hasn’t come from TikTok dances or makeup tutorials: Seibt has instead garnered notoriety online from her videos discussing climate change. Specifically, Seibt has been billed as the “anti-Greta,” or climate skeptics’ answer to Greta Thunberg, the Swedish teen climate-change activist. Though Seibt is significantly less famous than Thunberg, her niche within the online punditry sphere has garnered her a speaking slot at the Conservative Political Action Conference and interviews with Piers Morgan and Dana Perino, among others. 

How is this relevant to the issue of think tanks? For the early part of her career, Seibt was a fellow at the Heartland Institute, a think-tank specializing in climate skepticism. She was officially announced as a fellow at Heartland in February 2020, though she has since broken ties with the organization. Heartland is well-funded (the think tank has ties to the formidable Mercer family) and well-connected; on top of that, they have arguably expanded their reach much further through their connection with Seibt. The nature of Seibt’s content fits well with the auspices of a think tank’s mission: Seibt frames her criticism of climate science (including “debunking” IPCC reports) as mere skeptical inquiry or at most pushback against the supposed hegemony of consistent scientific evidence.  She frames her own analysis as cool, detached "realism" in contrast to Thunberg's more emotive "alarmism." 

Though Seibt’s content and views may be of concern, the Heartland-Seibt partnership may offer a new model by which think tanks can potentially expand their relevance. (This model would likely be limited to think tanks that have a clear “angle” on a widely known issue, as even the most adept influencer is unlikely to capture an audience by discussing the finer points of tax policy.) Seibt’s platforms–YouTube, CPAC, Fox News–are likely to capture the attention of mainstream audiences; the former two in particular will net young audiences. Even if Seibt’s audience doesn’t necessarily transfer to Heartland, her influence could begin to shift the opinion of a young cohort in Heartland’s preferred direction–and a young cohort engaging with political content online is likely going to vote. Specific ideology aside, the Heartland-Seibt partnership arguably provides a blueprint by which similar organizations can take advantage of social media and influencer culture to expand their reach, increase their relevance, and possibly even fundraise in the future. 

Iran: Recent Assassination

 

We are just now learning that this previous week Iranian scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated. He was traveling via vehicle in the east district of Tehran when his passenger vehicle was overtaken by a Nissan. There was apparently an open gunfight between the vehicles followed then by an explosion, which resulted in the untimely death of the famed nuclear scientist. This comes at times of already strained relations between Iran, Israel, and the United States. No one has taken actual claim for the assassination, but several have commented on the affect that this incident will have upon Iran, their infrastructure, and the peace work that has been done in order to bring about ceasefires in the holy land.

“Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also said the country would retaliate and pointed to Israel”, this should come as no surprise as there has been an ongoing battle between the two countries. If a retaliation did occur there is no predicting what warfare would be expected. Countless lives from both sides have already been lost between the countless back and forth. Israel being a neighbor puts them in much riskier position with blame being tossed their way as they will face the effects watching from their back doors. This attack, however, could be the final piece capable for Iran to declare that there is no option for peace when incidents, like the assassination, continue to happen. This leads to the belief that there is a much bigger plan unfolding and that this was not an isolated incident.

In the upcoming weeks, with tensions high and continuing to rise, one can only speculate what may transpire. It goes without saying that Iran will seek justice in some way or another against whomever turns out to be the one or ones responsible for the killing. What their punishment will be able is yet to be determined, but there will be repercussions.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/28/middleeast/iran-mohsen-fakhrizadeh-nuclear-scientists-killed-intl/index.html

China Takes One More Step Past America

 The Chinese government has launched an unmanned spacecraft to a previously unexplored part of the moon. Beijing is working to become the first country in decades to reach the moon. The purpose of this mission is to help scientists better understand the satellite and planets beyond Earth. Within the Long March-5 rocket that was sent early on Tuesday morning was four different modules; which are the lander, the ascent vehicle, the service capsule and the return capsule. The China National Space Administration (CNSA) called the launch a success. They further went to explain how the rocket flew for 37 minutes prior to sending the spacecraft on the intended trajectory. A main priority for this mission is to study lunar samples from the moon, these samples would be sent back via the return capsule. The CNSA has acknowledged some challenges to this mission; nonetheless, this mission is anticipated to be a success. Beijing having a successful exploratory mission of the moon of this caliber could give China an advantage on the US satellite systems.  Following the launch of this rocket even NASA scientists have acknowledged the implications of this mission. David S. Draper, the deputy scientist at NASA stated "this is a really audacious mission". China is expanding their arena of influence and research to somewhere that Washington has not explored in decades. A successful mission like this allows the CNSA to have a better understanding of satellites that are orbiting Earth gives them a new perspective on all aspects of these satellites no matter what country uses them. A successful mission would afford Beijing the opportunity to have a different look on these satellites that could shed light on how Washington is using its satellites. This launch shows that China has surpassed the US in yet another aspect by successfully sending a mission to the moon about 4 years prior. Not only does this launch challenge the safety of US satellites, but also, its global hegemony from China that has been vying for global hegemony recently and this is just one more step towards accomplishing its goal.  

The OST at crux of Presidential and Congressional power on Natl Security Issues

Today, November 23, 2020 marks the first day the U.S. is no longer party to the Treaty on Open Skies. The treaty started as an idea by Eisenhower during the time aerial reconnaissance with U-2 spy planes became popular following World War II and the spread of nuclear proliferation. However, George H.W. Bush is credited with the current Open Skies Treaty after first outlining its principles in a speech at Texas A&M University in 1989. Bill Clinton’s administration carried the torch and successfully garnered Senate ratification in 1993. The George W. Bush administration had already taken power by the time the other Party states ratified the treaty, thus birthing a new era of aerial reconnaissance between Cold War states. 

As most know, Congress holds the constitutional power to declare war, regulate armed forces, restrict war aims, procure weapons, and alter strength of the different services. Yet, forming alliances, agreeing to strategic arms control, and entering into free trade agreements requires Congressional approval for ratification. Article II Treaties (POTUS brokered international  specifically require a 2/3 Senate majority for ratification. 

What makes Congressional action within the Open Skies context now is incredibly unique –what are the rules for leaving? Writing this question, I immediately think of all the difficulties witnesses still with Brexit and how the authorities are having to develop exit procedures as they explore options to leave for the British to exit the European Union. Congress in the 2020 NDAA (Natl Defense Authorization Act) inserted a provision into Section 1234 setting preconditions on any Trump administration effort to withdraw requiring SecDef and SOS to submit a notification of withdrawal in the best interests of the U.S. to congressional foreign affairs and defense committees at least 4 months before notifying Open Skies Parties of U.S. intent to withdraw. The Trump Administration notified Open Skies Parties on May 22, 2020 of U.S. withdrawal without notifying Congress. This in itself tears at the constitutionality of Congressional vs. Presidential authority over national security and foreign affairs. Goldwater v. Carter (1979) effectively determined that Congress had not engaged and been at an impasse requiring judicial interference. Thus, it is likely challenges to Trump’s actions will not result in a win to the Democrats and few Republicans in the Senate who support the Open Skies Treaty. However, will this change the behaviour of Congress in the future? 

It is interesting that the House’s version of Section 1234 in the NDAA possessed more explicit terms for Congressional participation in Open Skies withdrawal. However, this was watered down significantly in the Senate final edit. Given the START II expiration in 2021, could we see Congress try and pass bilateral legislation explicitly parsing power from the executive branch in regards to exiting treaties? Maybe. I think the majority of this interest stems from President Trump’s disillusion with arms control agreements, and in this arena we will likely see a renewed interest by Congress in foreign affairs. Since Vietnam Congressional interest in international relations as it relates to national security has consistently decreased, but given the lack of restrictions on nuclear weapons between former Cold War states, we could see this decline reverse. Will Congress begin taking the stage alongside the President to determine U.S. foreign relations, maybe not. Will Congress learn from this and challenge the executive branch to maintain and install arms control agreements with Russia, I think this is likely. President-elect Biden has publicly stated his support for things such as New Start. I believe Biden will not run from Congressional insertion in these issues, but should Congress enact legislation to accumulate more control in the U.S. withdrawing from arms control agreements, I believe future administrations could face conflict with Congress over influence. 

For reference:

• When Can the President Withdraw From the Open Skies Treaty?
• Goldwater v. Carter
• Trump administration pulls out of Open Skies treaty with Russia

Strategic Considerations of Missile Defense Technology

This past Monday a Standard Missile Interceptor 3 (SM-3) successfully shot down an unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile. This is the first successful test of its kind for the SM-3, making it just the second U.S. interceptor technology to demonstrate this capability alongside the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system. 

There could be long-reaching consequences from the U.S.'s development of this capability. 

Officials in Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang perceive missile defense technology such as this as strategically destabilizing, undermining their strike capabilities to an extent that their deterrent posture is put into question. 

Strategic stability is eroded when the United States continues to pursue absolute military advantage over its adversaries by pursuing technology like this. Instead of reinforcing the perception of mutual vulnerability that has been the cornerstone of deterrence between nuclear powers, U.S. missile defense systems destabilize the strategic landscape by limiting the retaliatory capabilities of adversaries. 

Development of this technology could draw the U.S. into an arms race as adversaries feel incentivized to develop new technology that can counteract these defense systems. This has already begun with regards to the development of hypersonic technology by China and Russia or the large road-mobile ICBM unveiled by North Korea this year that may be capable of overwhelming missile defense systems with multiple entry vehicle technology. 

The U.S. should be mindful of the perceptions of  other countries like China and Russia when developing missile defense technology. The development and deployment of these U.S. systems will likely result in only more threats. 

So long as nuclear powers believe that national security relies on their ability to retaliate, missile defense technology will interfere with efforts to reduce these weapons. These defenses are moreso a dangerous stoking of the security dilemma between the U.S. and it's adversaries than a realistic solution. 

Stimulus Package Amongst Political Confusion

With rapidly increasing amounts of COVID cases in the United States, multiple states are reinstating lockdowns or restrictions, especially with the holiday season approaching. For many, this year has been financially devastating, with lost wages, jobs, and savings. While Congress passed a stimulus package that provided a majority of adult Americans with a $1,200 check, this was a paltry amount for the prolonged financial stress most are under. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and the House Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) failed to reach a deal on a second stimulus package prior to the election despite some support from President Trump, due to McConnell’s obstinacy. After his re-election, McConnell signaled his willingness to work together to pass a package. 

 

The Democrats originally proposed a bill of 3 trillion USD with the Republicans countering with a $1 billion plan. Both have now scaled their proposals down to 2 trillion for the Democrats and a possible 500 billion for Republicans. It still is unclear which party will control the Senate, with runoff races occurring in Georgia in January which presents a potential threat as neither party wants to fully proceed until they can ensure they have enough power to bargain for their demands. However, there is renewed support from business groups to pass a bill immediately as well as growing demand from the American people who are struggling to make ends meet. 

 

While McConnell has now decided to work to pass a bill, he has attached a great deal of caveats for the Democrats to meet. McConnell is anxious to pass a bill before President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in and before the Georgia races are decided, in case, he loses his leverage in the Senate. For his part, President Trump is focused not on passing a stimulus package, but rather, a far-fetched legal attempt to identify voter fraud and invalidate the results of the election. 

 

McConnell’s actions are disappointing as a stimulus package should not be political. As a senator, his loyalty should be to the people, and specifically his constituents. There have been nearly a thousand deaths in Kentucky, and, as of November 20^th, some lockdown measures and restrictions have been reinstated. While some people were able to return to work when restaurants reopened in the summer, many are now once again facing layoffs as indoor dining is banned. These people should not be victims of McConnell’s personal dislike or Washington politics. 

Emergency Use Vaccines: Do We Really Want It?

Pfizer Inc, one of the leading COVID-19 vaccine research and production companies said Friday it is asking U.S. regulators to allow emergency use of its COVID-19 vaccine. This would start the clock on a process that could bring limited first shots as early as next month and eventually an end to the pandemic. The action comes days after Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech announced that its vaccine appears 95% effective at preventing mild to severe COVID-19 cases. The companies said that protection plus a good safety record means the vaccine should qualify for emergency use authorization, something the Food and Drug Administration can grant before the final testing is fully complete. In addition to Friday’s FDA submission, they have already started “rolling” applications in Europe and the U.K. and intend to submit similar information soon. But what does emergency use of a COVID-19 vaccine mean? It is when regulators allow shots to be given to certain people while studies of safety and effectiveness are ongoing. Before any vaccine is permitted in the U.S., it must be reviewed by the Food and Drug Administration, which requires study in thousands of people. Normally, the process to approve a new vaccine can take about a decade. But the federal government is using various methods to dramatically speed up the process for COVID-19 vaccines. During a health crisis, the FDA can loosen its normal scientific standards to allow emergency use of experimental drugs, devices, vaccines and other medical products. The first vaccines to get the provisional green light in the U.S. are almost certain to be made available under this process, known as emergency use authorization. However, what does this status of an "emergency use" drug mean to the general public? Backlash regarding the safety of the drug may occur due to its rushed nature. In contrast, government promotion of such a vaccine could be detrimental to public trust. If the vaccine were to have unforeseen widespread negative affects or failure rates it could cause a problem worse than the pandemic. An even further rift between the public and the government is likely to form if emergency COVID-19 vaccinations become mandatory. In the age of anti-vaxers and growing disinformation/misinformation campaigns a rushed drug mandated by the federal or even state governments will likely be met with significant resistance, further slowing the race to a cure. Regardless however, we must remain vigilant as the time of emergency use vaccines draws near in an attempt to stifle even larger issues which may arise from it.